Zohran Is Doomed

When the socialist becomes a socialite

I was an early supporter of Zorhan Mamdani for mayor. As a tail-end millennial, I’ve been pretty jaded by the political process for as long as I’ve been able to vote. I saw Obama run on a platform of “hope” and “change” and then continue to govern like Geroge W. Bush. In 2016, the first presidential election where I could vote, I saw the Democratic establishment collude to squash Bernie Sanders in the primary, forcing voters to make the anti-Sophie’s choice (if Sophie hated both of her children but had to save one of them) between Giant Douche Donald Trump and Turd Sandwich Hillary Clinton.

In 2016, the messaging from the DNC to dejected voters who were energized by Bernie’s economic populism was, “Shut up and eat your vegetables. Hillary may suck, but only she can beat Trump.” We all saw how that turned out.

In 2020, when the establishment again conspired to shut Bernie out of the primary, the messaging was the same. “Biden may suck, but only he can beat Trump.” Of course, Biden did win, but he benefited greatly from COVID effectively halting traditional campaigning and making it easier to hide his senility from the public. Had Biden actually had to do rallies, interviews, and town halls, I don’t think he would’ve stood a chance.

In 2024, we didn’t even get a choice. The Powers That Be told us that Kamala Harris was The One. She was Brat. She was very demure, very mindful. If that wasn’t enough? “Suck it up and vote for her anyway,” they told us. "Anyone is better than Trump.”

For a full decade, the DNC’s entire message has been, “We’re not Trump.” They frame their arguments not around what they believe in, but around what they don’t believe in. This, of course, is because the things they do believe in (increased defense spending, more foreign wars, large corporate campaign donations, tax breaks for the wealthy, genocide in Gaza, etc.) are not popular. When the Republican Party was in similar disarray ten years ago, Trump stormed in with a message that resonated with the working class and eventually remade the party in his image.

So I was ecstatic when I learned about Zohran Mamdani, a DSA-backed self-proclaimed socialist who was running for mayor and who, I believed, had a real shot at winning. Eric Adams had just been indicted, leaving a vacuum for a leftist candidate to fill. Zorhan was so refreshing because he wasn't running on identity politics, but on economic populism — things like free buses, taxing the rich, freezing the rent, creating city-run grocery stores. For the first time in my adult life, I felt hopeful about a political candidate.

In theory, Zohran’s positions should be popular with most New Yorkers who don’t live on Billionaire’s Row. Rent keeps climbing, and the MTA keeps raising fares so they can hire private security to guard the emergency exits. Victory for Zohran should be a slam dunk, especially since his main opponent is disgraced former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who was all but forcibly removed from office four years ago. Yet with the primary just weeks away, Zohran is trailing Cuomo in the polls by a significant margin. I’ve resigned myself to the fact that, barring a miracle, Cuomo will win the primary and end up being our next mayor.

But why is this campaign that initially showed so much promise ultimately failing to deliver? From my estimation, Zohran has the opposite problem Kamala Harris had. He energizes the liberal base, but fails to break out of that bubble.

Circlejerk for Zohran

In a big city like New York, everybody lives in their own self-created “pocket.” I live in Bushwick, which is queer leftist central and arguably the epicenter of Zohran’s support. Here, saying you support Zohran is as much of a fashion statement as having a Telfar bag. Every day, I see campaign posters in bodega windows, Instagram models sporting their “Hot Girls for Zohran” gear, and people with mullets and septum rings knocking on doors handing out campaign literature. Every weekend, someone will ask me, “Are you going to the rave for Zohran?” “Are you going to the drag show for Zohran?” “Are you going to the orgy for Zohran?”

These are objectively all good things — for a real anti-corporate leftist to win an election, there needs to be a strong grassroots movement around them. But to me, it's beginning to feel like circlejerk campaigning — young leftist transplants in hip neighborhoods are getting the message out to other young leftist transplants in hip neighborhoods while ignoring the rest of the city.

The problem with his core support coming from this demographic is multifaceted. It’s an insular pocket, so at this point in the campaign, the message is largely getting out to people who have already heard it. But of those people, how many will actually vote? How many are even registered to vote in New York? Voter turnout among young people is typically low, and many transplants proudly stay registered to vote in their home states, where they believe their vote "actually matters” (provided it even gets counted). Well, here’s a situation where their vote very much would matter. In fact, I would argue that your vote matters much more in a local election than in a presidential one.

I keep hearing about how fantastic this campaign’s ground game is. They were the first campaign to hit the $8 million fundraising limit, and claim to have “the largest volunteer operation this city has ever seen.” A campaign official wrote in the WhatsApp group that they’ve knocked on over 500,000 doors so far. So why does the latest Marist poll have Zohran trailing Cuomo by 24 points?

It’s not like Cuomo is universally beloved, nor is anyone excited about his candidacy. Cuomo, much like Joe Biden, is the human equivalent of a paper bag. It should be very easy to dissuade people from voting for Cuomo, but clearly, something about Zohran’s message isn’t resonating. My suspicion is that it simply isn’t reaching enough people due to the nature of the circlejerk campaign. Enthusiastic supporters who live in Bushwick and Williamsburg go canvassing in Bushwick and Williamsburg, preaching to the choir while no one outside the church can hear them. They’re not taking the R train all the way down to Bay Ridge or the ferry to Staten Island. Presumably, people outside the North Brooklyn bubble make up the bulk of Cuomo’s supporters, simply because he’s the only candidate they’ve heard of.

Socialist, or Socialite?

There’s no questioning that Zohran is the "cool" candidate, not unlike Barack Obama in 2008. Hell, the first campaign event I attended was a concert fundraiser at Baby’s All Right back in January. Just over a month later, he had a massive fundraiser at Night Club 101 (fka Pyramid Club) hosted by tons of clouted memers and podcasters. His TikTok game is strong, and he’s the chosen candidate of the nimcel class — people you’ve probably never heard of but have more followers than CNN has viewers. But his micro-celebrity support is giving me deja vu. Take a look at the opening paragraph from a New York Magazine article about his recent massive rally at Brooklyn Steel, a popular Williamsburg concert venue:

Before the event began, Julian Casablancas dropped by to say hello … Ella Emhoff and Councilmember Chi Ossé [of TikTok fame] did a joint endorsement video on the step-and-repeat. Family friend Kal Penn emceed, and Jaboukie Young-White told some jokes.

Is it me, or is this giving Kamala campaigning with Beyoncé on a smaller scale? Obviously, none of these people are A-listers like Beyoncé, but the ethos remains the same. It’s a classic appeal to authority. 4 out of 5 dentists recommend Trident, and 5 out of 5 somewhat famous people recommend Zohran.

The other day, I was scrolling Instagram and saw a post for a trans town hall with Zohran at Nowadays. It appeared to be an independently organized event, not one sanctioned by the campaign. Of course, it’s great that he is participating. Trans people are understandably frightened by the Trump administration and want to have a strong political ally. But what bugged me about the post was the list of “hosts,” 22 clouted trans micro-celebs, from writers and visual artists to drag queens. The point of a town hall is to make constituents feel like their voices are heard, so why is the appeal to authority necessary? Are they “hosting” in a nightlife sense, where their names are on the poster just to get people to show up? That seems odd to do for a political town hall. Are the hosts the only ones who get to ask questions? Because that’s alienating the everyday non-clouted constituents. I guess what annoyed me about this — and the many other events I’ve seen like it — is that it’s trying to get people engaged in the political process by framing it as a must-see event that everybody who’s anybody is going to, when in reality everybody’s voice matters regardless of how many followers they have. It’s trying to get people to organize against economic inequality while exploiting social inequality.

In the social media age, clout is the most valuable social currency. In rallying against the economic elite, Zohran has ironically aligned himself with the social elite. They may not necessarily be economically privileged, but they’re rich in a different medium of exchange, and they still hold a level of power and influence that the average person does not. That said, it dilutes Zohran’s “for the people” message when he’s constantly propped up and surrounded by influencers. It makes him look less like a serious political candidate and more like a wannabe clout chaser. All the celebrity endorsements backfired on Kamala Harris because it made her look like an out-of-touch elitist, and as the mayoral campaign has progressed, I’ve begun getting that vibe from Zohran despite his economic populism.

I don’t blame Zohran and his campaign for embracing the Instagram It-Crowd. They'd be crazy not to. As the campaign's communications director told The New York Times, this wasn’t a planned campaign strategy. It happened organically, and they just want to get their message out to as many people as possible. Other than the attempt to paint him as a Holocaust denier, Zohran hasn’t gotten much attention from the mainstream media. But with every appearance he makes on a TikTok series, at a rave, at a concert, or at a socialite’s birthday party, my inner cynic can’t help but wonder: Does Zorhan really want to be mayor of NYC, or does he want a primetime slot on MSNBC?

Movement, Or Moment?

Obviously, I hope I’m totally wrong about all of this, and Zohran ends up pulling off a massive upset victory. A recent internal poll showed Zohran closing in on Cuomo… but still trailing by 13 points. No matter how the campaign tries to spin it, it’s not a close race, and closing a gap like that in less than a month is a longshot.

I’m still going to rank Zohran first and not rank Cuomo, but I’d be lying if I said I haven’t lost the enthusiasm I had a few months ago. Zohran feels less like the beginning of a major political movement and more like a passing fad, no different from mullets or carpenter pants. People support him not because they have a passion for progressive ideals, but because the hip, trendy tastemakers told them to. When it’s no longer en vogue, will anyone care anymore?

As Heidi Klum famously says on Project Runway, one day you’re in, and the next day, you’re out. I would love to believe that win or lose, Zohran’s campaign is the beginning of a major revolution in NYC politics and, hopefully, in the country at large. But my gut is telling me that come this fall, apathy will be back in, and progressivism will be out.